Bleak Wheat Outlook

Wheat, the world’s second consumed grain, has undergone a difficult and unstable year due to a series of natural disasters and consequent supply shortages. Apparently the roller coaster ride isn’t over yet, as 2011 crops may again under-deliver on a global scale. Let’s take a look at who the winners and losers might be:

– EUROPE: wheat output in drought-struck Europe may be disappointing. France had its second-hottest April since 1900 and one of the driest since 1953, while the UK had its hottest in three centuries. With the hot, dry weather continuing into May, there is a growing feeling that yields are set to decline.

– RUSSIA: there are speculations that Russia will lift its export ban as early as this summer, but as Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin reiterated just recently, the return of Russia to the global grain export market is dependent on this year’s harvest and domestic demand, so for now we are left with a big question mark.

– INDIA: the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s attache predicts that a record wheat crop of 84.2 million tons may prompt New Delhi to allow up to 2 million tons of exports, the first time in five years India would export grain.

– AUSTRALIA: as reported by agrimoney whilst Australia’s wheat exports have boomed (mostly filling in for the Soviet Union), parts of Western Australia have had their lowest rainfall on record for the past 16 months, posing a significant threat to the country’s wheat crop and reducing the likelihood of setting a new national record. The region typically accounts for up to 40% of Australia’s wheat output.

The uncertainty around Russia and India re-entering the wheat trade and the deteriorating prospects around Europe and US drought-struck crops are unlikely to cool down markets or prices in the near future.

sources: Agromoney.com / 7marketspot.com / ft.com

Tilapia Found to Perform Poorly Nutritionally and Environmentally

As it turns out, after more reading on the topic, Tilapia often called the perfect factory fish is not so perfect when it comes to other factors like nutritional values and the environment. I covered this topic in a previous post because the numbers are truly staggering. As the New York Times recently reported, Americans ate 475 million pounds of Tilapia last year, four times the amount a decade ago, making this once obscure African native the most popular farmed fish in the United States. Aquaculture’s rising star lives well in high-density cages, breeds and grows fast and, from a marketing point of view, it’s quite bland in taste making it the perfect fish for the many who don’t particularly like a fishy flavour. Isn’t it all too good to be true? Maybe it is for those who farm it and see their volumes and profits rise year after year. But for the end consumer it may come as a revelation to know that, as reported by the New York Times, compared with other fish, farmed tilapia contains relatively small amounts of beneficial omega-3 fatty acids, the fish oils that are the main reasons doctors recommend eating fish frequently; salmon has more than 10 times the amount of tilapia. Also, farmed tilapia contains a less healthful mix of fatty acids because the fish are fed corn and soy instead of lake plants and algae, the diet of wild tilapia. Moreover it appears that most of the Tilapia imported in the US comes from either Asia or Latin America, where some argue farming is still widely unregulated and intensive, making it an unfriendly practice to the environment and the animals. Whilst it seems that the US has no problems with these matters, at least so far, taking about Tilapia to my clients in Europe, I see skepticism as you would expect from a more conservative community like the EU when it comes to sanitary concerns, deregulated farms, etc… I believe that there will be a place for Tilapia on our plates in the future, mostly because given the declining fish stocks and rising population we don’t have much of a choice, but a more regulated and transparent acquafarming industry is required for sustainable growth.

image courtesy of NY Times